酒店行業專題報告：國內連鎖化中高端酒店發展前景廣闊

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• 作者：管理員
• 發布時間：2024-06-02
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1. 中美(mei)兩(liang)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展變遷1.1 美(mei)國(guo)(guo)：從(cong)(cong)量到(dao)質，酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)順勢升(sheng)級國(guo)(guo)外(wai)(wai)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)中，酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌較(jiao)為多樣(yang)化，從(cong)(cong)經濟(ji)型到(dao)高(gao)端奢華酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)全方位滿(man)足不同層次消費者需求；同時，國(guo)(guo)外(wai)(wai)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)中自(zi)由(you)行(xing)游客數量較(jiao)多，網(wang)上預訂酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)房(fang)間比例逐(zhu)漸增加(jia)，進(jin)(jin)一步促進(jin)(jin)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展較(jiao)為成熟(shu)，有較(jiao)為完(wan)善(shan)的產業(ye)(ye)鏈和市場體(ti)系，擁有眾(zhong)多酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌和經營模(mo)式。 二(er)戰后至今是美(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)從(cong)(cong)繁榮(rong)走向成熟(shu)的重要過程，大(da)致(zhi)可以分(fen)為兩(liang)個階段(duan)：1）1940-1980，美(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)實現高(gao)速發(fa)展，資本不斷涌入、供給充沛。主(zhu)要表現在以汽(qi)車旅館為代(dai)表的經濟(ji)型

1. 中美兩國酒店行(xing)業發展(zhan)變遷

1.1 美國：從量(liang)到質，酒店行業順勢升級

國(guo)(guo)外酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)，酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌(pai)較為(wei)(wei)多(duo)樣化，從經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)型(xing)到高(gao)(gao)端(duan)奢華(hua)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全(quan)方(fang)位滿足不(bu)同層次(ci)消費者需(xu)求(qiu)；同時(shi)，國(guo)(guo)外酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)自由行(xing)游客數量較多(duo)，網上預(yu)訂(ding)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)房間比例逐漸增加，進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步促進(jin)(jin)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展。美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展較為(wei)(wei)成熟(shu)，有(you)較為(wei)(wei)完善的(de)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈和市場體(ti)系(xi)，擁有(you)眾多(duo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌(pai)和經(jing)營模(mo)式(shi)(shi)。 二戰后至(zhi)今是美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)從繁榮(rong)走向成熟(shu)的(de)重要過程，大致可以分為(wei)(wei)兩(liang)(liang)個階(jie)段：1）1940-1980，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)實現高(gao)(gao)速發(fa)展，資本不(bu)斷涌入、供(gong)給充沛。主要表(biao)現在以汽(qi)車旅館為(wei)(wei)代表(biao)的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)型(xing)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)野蠻生長； 2）1980-至(zhi)今，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開始進(jin)(jin)入存量整合、結(jie)構升級階(jie)段。實力雄厚的(de)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)資本與擁有(you)先(xian)進(jin)(jin)商業(ye)(ye)管理模(mo)式(shi)(shi)的(de)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)團結(jie)合，通過外延兼并收(shou)購、加盟管理輸出兩(liang)(liang)條路徑(jing)實現行(xing)業(ye)(ye)集(ji)中(zhong)度(du)提升。同時(shi)伴隨(sui)互聯網科(ke)技進(jin)(jin)步、經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)全(quan)球(qiu)化等(deng)刺激(ji)商業(ye)(ye)旅行(xing)和休(xiu)閑旅游需(xu)求(qiu)增長，經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)繁榮(rong)下消費升級帶動美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)結(jie)構調(diao)整，中(zhong)高(gao)(gao)端(duan)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)崛起。

縱觀(guan)美(mei)國酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)業發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)成(cheng)熟之后(hou)顯(xian)著變化(hua)特(te)征，1）國際化(hua)業務非常成(cheng)熟，美(mei)國前5大酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)業務范圍基(ji)本全(quan)球布(bu)局(ju)，完成(cheng)從酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)向國際酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)重(zhong)(zhong)要身份(fen)演變；2）資(zi)產由(you)重(zhong)(zhong)到(dao)(dao)輕的轉變，發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)初期(qi)追(zhui)求重(zhong)(zhong)資(zi)產模(mo)式(shi)，逐漸發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)成(cheng)熟之后(hou)逐步以委托管理(li)、特(te)許模(mo)式(shi)進行(xing)快(kuai)速擴張，直(zhi)到(dao)(dao)目(mu)前完全(quan)輕資(zi)產化(hua)；3）多品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)、多層次的酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)布(bu)局(ju)，從低(di)到(dao)(dao)高(gao)細分市場全(quan)部布(bu)局(ju)，形成(cheng)完整的品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)矩陣；4）社會經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)對行(xing)業影響較(jiao)大，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)行(xing)業具有典(dian)型第(di)三產業特(te)征，社會經(jing)濟(ji)繁(fan)榮與衰退的影響在酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)行(xing)業可(ke)以得到(dao)(dao)充分印證(zheng)。

1.2 中國：行業逐漸走(zou)向存量時(shi)代

國(guo)內(nei)現代(dai)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)從(cong)改革開放后(hou)逐步發展(zhan)(zhan)。最初酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)主要以接(jie)待外(wai)賓、促進(jin)入境旅(lv)(lv)游和對外(wai)貿易為主。由于缺(que)乏管(guan)(guan)理經驗，我國(guo)開始(shi)引進(jin)中外(wai)合(he)資、合(he)作飯店(dian)(dian)(dian)，隨后(hou)開始(shi)發展(zhan)(zhan)本土(tu)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)管(guan)(guan)理公(gong)司。1988 年，國(guo)家(jia)批準(zhun)《旅(lv)(lv)游涉外(wai)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)星級評定(ding)標準(zhun)》，實施對酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)管(guan)(guan)理，以緩解(jie)消(xiao)費(fei)者和酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)之間信(xin)息不對等(deng)。2000 年后(hou)國(guo)內(nei)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)開始(shi)快速(su)擴張(zhang)。自 20 世(shi)紀 80-90 年代(dai)嘗試(shi)探路到2000 年后(hou)步入快速(su)發展(zhan)(zhan)期，在(zai)政府、地產商、國(guo)際(ji)品牌(pai)方共同推動下，國(guo)內(nei)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)在(zai) 15 年間高速(su)擴張(zhang)，國(guo)內(nei)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團、國(guo)際(ji)連鎖酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)同臺競爭(zheng)。

通過中美(mei)兩(liang)國酒店行業特征出(chu)(chu)現可以看(kan)出(chu)(chu)，中國品牌酒店集(ji)團出(chu)(chu)現時間(jian)較美(mei)國晚近(jin)70年(nian)(nian)，但(dan)面向(xiang)客人的(de)服務隨著社會公眾(zhong)服務升級(ji)時間(jian)大大提(ti)前，有效(xiao)將兩(liang)國酒店行業發展差距縮短至十(shi)年(nian)(nian)。

資(zi)(zi)本助(zhu)推經濟(ji)型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店高(gao)速(su)擴(kuo)張：2002 年(nian)如家(jia)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店創立(li)標(biao)志著國(guo)內(nei)(nei)有限(xian)服務型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店誕(dan)生。2006 年(nian)以來(lai)，如家(jia)、7 天、漢庭相(xiang)繼(ji)(ji)步入資(zi)(zi)本市(shi)場。借助(zhu)資(zi)(zi)本、經濟(ji)型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店迅速(su)擴(kuo)張，目前基本形成首旅如家(jia)、錦(jin)江、華(hua)(hua)住(zhu)為主的市(shi)場格局(ju)。 高(gao)星級(ji)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店受政策、競(jing)爭雙重擠壓(ya)：高(gao)星級(ji)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店在發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)初期利潤水平較高(gao)，但隨著市(shi)場供給(gei)增加(jia)，細分賽(sai)道行(xing)業(ye)競(jing)爭加(jia)劇。2012 年(nian)末八項規(gui)定出(chu)臺之后，高(gao)客單價不合理消費(fei)被抑(yi)制，高(gao)檔酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店需(xu)求下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑嚴(yan)重。 中(zhong)(zhong)端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店業(ye)態迎來(lai)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)期：高(gao)端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店和(he)經濟(ji)型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店競(jing)爭日(ri)趨激烈，促進中(zhong)(zhong)端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。以華(hua)(hua)住(zhu)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店在 2010 年(nian)擴(kuo)展(zhan)(zhan)其下(xia)(xia)(xia)全季酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店開始，2013 年(nian)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店行(xing)業(ye)步入中(zhong)(zhong)端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)時代。2013年(nian)起(qi)華(hua)(hua)住(zhu)集團開始對旗下(xia)(xia)(xia)標(biao)準化(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)端品牌(pai)全季，和(he)非(fei)標(biao)準化(hua)品牌(pai)星程(cheng)進行(xing)大規(gui)模招商；錦(jin)江增加(jia)新的中(zhong)(zhong)端品牌(pai)錦(jin)江都城(cheng)；鉑濤推出(chu)麗楓、喆啡等中(zhong)(zhong)端品牌(pai)。在此(ci)輪(lun)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)，華(hua)(hua)住(zhu)以布局(ju)快速(su)和(he)經營效(xiao)率較高(gao)的特點高(gao)速(su)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，并購桔子水晶完善品牌(pai)矩陣；如家(jia)旗下(xia)(xia)(xia)如家(jia)精選、和(he)頤(yi)，錦(jin)江旗下(xia)(xia)(xia)維也納(na)也不斷壯大。疫(yi)情下(xia)(xia)(xia)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店行(xing)業(ye)經營持續承壓(ya)，行(xing)業(ye)供給(gei)端加(jia)速(su)出(chu)清(qing)。2020-2022 年(nian)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店數量下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑，由 27.9 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)家(jia)減少(shao)至(zhi) 25.23 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)家(jia)，國(guo)內(nei)(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店客房數由 1533 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)間減少(shao)至(zhi)1346 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)間。隨著出(chu)行(xing)鏈持續恢復、需(xu)求相(xiang)繼(ji)(ji)釋放，我國(guo)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店行(xing)業(ye)有望回到疫(yi)情前發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)快車道。

2. 酒店行業兼具周期(qi)性和成(cheng)長性

2.1 酒店行業(ye)具有周期性

酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)是典型(xing)(xing)的周期性行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)。酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)取(qu)決(jue)于(yu)宏(hong)觀(guan)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟景氣(qi)程(cheng)度以及消費者消費習慣，存(cun)在(zai)與(yu)整體宏(hong)觀(guan)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)相一致的周期性特征。 行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)需(xu)求(qiu)主要來(lai)自商務需(xu)求(qiu)和旅游需(xu)求(qiu)。當經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟運行(xing)(xing)穩(wen)定、社(she)(she)會(hui)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)繁榮時(shi)，經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)帶(dai)動人(ren)員流(liu)動加大，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求(qiu)上升，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)供不應求(qiu)帶(dai)來(lai)投資回(hui)(hui)報率(lv)提升，社(she)(she)會(hui)資本更多投向酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)。但(dan)從酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)投資到開(kai)業(ye)(ye)根據(ju)不同類型(xing)(xing)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)建(jian)設(she)時(shi)間需(xu)要6-12 個月，新(xin)店(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)業(ye)(ye)之后(hou)通常會(hui)有一定時(shi)間爬坡期，在(zai)這(zhe)一段時(shi)間內供不應求(qiu)的市場特征仍(reng)會(hui)持續(xu)。當經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟增速放緩、對酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)投資減少、行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)供過于(yu)求(qiu)，部(bu)分經(jing)(jing)(jing)營效率(lv)較低的酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)逐漸(jian)出現(xian)虧(kui)損(sun)，投資回(hui)(hui)報率(lv)下降(jiang)導致社(she)(she)會(hui)資本流(liu)出。

我們認(ren)為 GDP 對(dui)酒(jiu)店(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的影響(xiang)在逐漸減弱，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)內部(bu)供(gong)需結(jie)構調(diao)整對(dui)酒(jiu)店(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)更(geng)重要。從中、美兩(liang)國入(ru)住率同(tong)比增速(su)(su)和 GDP 增速(su)(su)趨勢可以看出，兩(liang)者呈(cheng)現(xian)分階(jie)段相(xiang)關(guan)的特點。2008-2009、2010-2012 兩(liang)個階(jie)段入(ru)住率同(tong)比增速(su)(su)和 GDP 增速(su)(su)相(xiang)關(guan)性(xing)較大，2013 年之后影響(xiang)入(ru)住率的主(zhu)要因素轉向行(xing)業(ye)(ye)內供(gong)需結(jie)構調(diao)整，疊加限三公、疫情等突(tu)發事件影響(xiang)，相(xiang)關(guan)性(xing)逐漸減小。

酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian) OCC 和(he) ADR 同樣(yang)呈(cheng)現一定相關(guan)性(xing)，OCC 增速(su)變化(hua)通常比(bi)ADR 增速(su)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前一個季度。ADR 滯(zhi)后性(xing)反(fan)映酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)行業經(jing)營者的(de)(de)(de)決策行為(wei)對(dui)行業帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響。相比(bi)OCC提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)經(jing)營受益于房價提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)效果更加(jia)(jia)明顯。提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) OCC 雖然也會(hui)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高利潤(run)率，但成本方面人員(yuan)、能(neng)耗(hao)等同樣(yang)上升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，但提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) ADR 不會(hui)增加(jia)(jia)成本負擔(dan)。疊加(jia)(jia)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)經(jing)營存在OCC 提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)瓶頸(jing)，最大(da)經(jing)營承載(zai)量(liang)和(he)滿負荷經(jing)營對(dui)效率的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響制約 OCC 最大(da)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度。 從行業周期(qi)(qi)角度來(lai)看(kan)，當門(men)店(dian) OCC 提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)至一定水平，短期(qi)(qi)內周邊市場(chang)沒有出現新的(de)(de)(de)供給承載(zai)需求，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)經(jing)營者可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)通過提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) ADR 來(lai)增厚利潤(run)水平；當OCC 表現下(xia)滑，經(jing)營者可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)通過降低 ADR 吸引客流(liu)，造成 ADR 呈(cheng)現出跟隨且滯(zhi)后 OCC 的(de)(de)(de)特點。

2.1.1 參考美國酒(jiu)店(dian)行業發展(zhan)歷程(cheng)，酒(jiu)店(dian)行業具有明顯周期屬性

酒店行業(ye)受(shou)經(jing)濟(ji)周期和投(tou)資(zi)周期共同作用。經(jing)濟(ji)發展對行業(ye)的(de)影(ying)響是根本，在強勁需求拉動下往(wang)往(wang)刺激行業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)。投(tou)資(zi)過熱的(de)影(ying)響會延(yan)續到行業(ye)下行周期反饋出負面影(ying)響。當(dang)行業(ye)需求下降(jiang)時(shi)，行業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)也隨之放(fang)緩，供給收縮帶來(lai)的(de)紅利在下一(yi)輪需求復(fu)蘇(su)時(shi)會再次出現。

我們(men)參(can)考(kao)美(mei)國酒店行業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)歷(li)(li)程來(lai)探(tan)索酒店行業(ye)的(de)(de)周期特征(zheng)。美(mei)國酒店行業(ye)在過(guo)去20余年(nian)共(gong)經(jing)歷(li)(li)兩(liang)輪周期，每輪周期通(tong)常(chang)持續 7-10 年(nian)、可(ke)劃分為 4 個階(jie)段，通(tong)常(chang)行業(ye)RevPAR在第二階(jie)段過(guo)渡期提升最快(kuai)。 總(zong)體(ti)來(lai)看，酒店行業(ye)供給滯后于需求(qiu)變化的(de)(de)現(xian)象是酒店行業(ye)呈現(xian)周期性(xing)的(de)(de)根本原(yuan)因。偶發(fa)性(xing)危機時間會使(shi)行業(ye)直(zhi)接(jie)步(bu)(bu)入(ru)衰退期，如 2012 年(nian)八項規(gui)定、限三公禁(jin)令出臺，2020年(nian)疫情爆發(fa)使(shi)得酒店入(ru)住率(lv)驟(zou)減、市場供過(guo)于求(qiu)、行業(ye)直(zhi)接(jie)步(bu)(bu)入(ru)衰退期。

2.1.2 加盟占(zhan)比提升將有效削弱酒店的周(zhou)期屬性

酒(jiu)(jiu)店經(jing)營通(tong)常(chang)分為(wei)直(zhi)營模(mo)式和加(jia)盟(meng)管(guan)理模(mo)式。酒(jiu)(jiu)店經(jing)營中直(zhi)營模(mo)式盈(ying)利來自于酒(jiu)(jiu)店經(jing)營，加(jia)盟(meng)盈(ying)利來自加(jia)盟(meng)費。相較于將加(jia)盟(meng)模(mo)式，直(zhi)營酒(jiu)(jiu)店經(jing)營風險更高、不確定性更強。

直(zhi)(zhi)營(ying)模(mo)式(shi)下，酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)依托自有或(huo)者租(zu)賃物(wu)業進行連鎖(suo)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)管理，并承擔全部租(zu)金(jin)(jin)、人(ren)工、能耗等成本費用。直(zhi)(zhi)營(ying)為重資產模(mo)式(shi)，經營(ying)彈性較(jiao)(jiao)高，RevPAR 是核心(xin)變量。當同(tong)(tong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)RevPAR上(shang)升時(shi)，由于占成本較(jiao)(jiao)高的(de)(de)(de)租(zu)金(jin)(jin)、折舊攤銷、人(ren)工相對(dui)固定(ding)，收入增長對(dui)業績的(de)(de)(de)邊際增量貢獻較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)。當同(tong)(tong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) RevPAR 承壓時(shi)，對(dui)直(zhi)(zhi)營(ying)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)業績經營(ying)業績壓力也較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)。同(tong)(tong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) RevPAR 波動對(dui)直(zhi)(zhi)營(ying)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業績影響(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)，而(er)同(tong)(tong)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian) RevPAR 主要受經濟周期影響(xiang)，直(zhi)(zhi)營(ying)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業績的(de)(de)(de)周期波動較(jiao)(jiao)為明顯。RevPAR 同(tong)(tong)比增速(su)基本在(zai)同(tong)(tong)一范圍區(qu)間(jian)內的(de)(de)(de)三大(da)(da)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集團，近 5 年單(dan)季度(du)(du)新開直(zhi)(zhi)營(ying)門(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相對(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)小的(de)(de)(de)首旅酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)凈(jing)利(li)潤同(tong)(tong)比變化(hua)幅度(du)(du)最小。

在直營模式(shi)下酒店(dian)租金（如酒店(dian)物業不屬于酒店(dian)集(ji)團、來自于租賃(lin)）和RevPAR是(shi)影響收益的兩(liang)個(ge)核(he)心變量，兩(liang)者的驅動因(yin)素均為(wei)商業繁榮程(cheng)度，周期(qi)長(chang)度有所差異。酒店(dian)租金通(tong)常(chang)以(yi) 8-10 年為(wei)一個(ge)周期(qi)，RevPAR 周期(qi)通(tong)常(chang)為(wei) 1-2 個(ge)月(yue)、跟隨客(ke)房價格調整。

直(zhi)營(ying)(ying)(ying)模(mo)式(shi)是(shi)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)看好未來經(jing)濟社會(hui)繁榮發(fa)展，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)者承擔社會(hui)發(fa)展的(de)波(bo)動風險，直(zhi)營(ying)(ying)(ying)模(mo)式(shi)占(zhan)比(bi)較(jiao)高的(de)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)，收入波(bo)動變化較(jiao)大(da)。這種風險在(zai)長期運營(ying)(ying)(ying)中(zhong)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)會(hui)帶來風險暴露(lu)，如經(jing)濟危機、疫情(qing)等。 以加盟(meng)形(xing)式(shi)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)導是(shi)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)擴張(zhang)的(de)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要途徑。加盟(meng)模(mo)式(shi)相較(jiao)于直(zhi)營(ying)(ying)(ying)模(mo)式(shi)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)性風險更(geng)(geng)小(xiao)，在(zai)具(ju)備(bei)品牌及管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)輸(shu)出能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)后(hou)可以成為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要業(ye)務拓展模(mo)式(shi)。 加盟(meng)模(mo)式(shi)可以更(geng)(geng)客(ke)觀(guan)的(de)體現酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)的(de)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)。加盟(meng)商通常比(bi)集(ji)團(tuan)直(zhi)營(ying)(ying)(ying)店(dian)(dian)具(ju)有(you)更(geng)(geng)好的(de)風險匹配，如酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)物業(ye)為(wei)(wei)加盟(meng)商自有(you)、省(sheng)去租金(jin)成本，或者加盟(meng)商對當地酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)市場、商業(ye)租賃市場有(you)較(jiao)強信息優勢，對沖(chong)大(da)部分租金(jin)波(bo)動風險。但加盟(meng)商缺乏酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)經(jing)驗和(he)獲(huo)客(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)。因此加盟(meng)模(mo)式(shi)在(zai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)具(ju)備(bei)一(yi)定品牌輸(shu)出能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)后(hou)會(hui)成為(wei)(wei)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要業(ye)務拓展模(mo)式(shi)。

2.1.3 我國(guo)酒店(dian)(dian)行業加盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)占比持續提升

美國(guo)酒店集團已(yi)經(jing)步入成熟期(qi)，基本以授權加盟(meng)形式進行擴張(zhang)。我國(guo)酒店行業尚(shang)處于(yu)加盟(meng)店擴張(zhang)時期(qi)，產品結構變化較大、中端(duan)酒店逐(zhu)漸替(ti)代(dai)經(jing)濟型酒店，未來加盟(meng)店開店速度有望繼續保(bao)持高位(wei)。

目前(qian)(qian)國(guo)內酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(tuan)直(zhi)營(ying)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)數占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)在(zai) 7%-30%，美國(guo)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(tuan)直(zhi)營(ying)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)顯著低于國(guo)內酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(tuan)。國(guo)內酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(tuan)從直(zhi)營(ying)向加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)模式(shi)轉變的(de)過(guo)程正在(zai)加(jia)(jia)速，自2014 年前(qian)(qian)后直(zhi)營(ying)門店(dian)(dian)(dian)停止高速增長進(jin)程，主要(yao)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(tuan)基本以加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)擴張為主。 國(guo)內直(zhi)營(ying)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)逐(zhu)步下降主要(yao)來自兩(liang)方面驅動(dong)力：1）加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)房(fang)間數保持快速增長；2）部分盈利能(neng)力不強的(de)直(zhi)營(ying)門店(dian)(dian)(dian)將會逐(zhu)步關停或轉化為加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)。

從(cong)三大酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)和萬(wan)豪集團(tuan)直(zhi)營/加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)門店(dian)(dian)結(jie)構來(lai)看(kan)，國內酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)直(zhi)營門店(dian)(dian)占比高于萬(wan)豪集團(tuan)。從(cong)趨勢方(fang)面來(lai)看(kan)，首(shou)旅(lv)、錦江、華(hua)住直(zhi)營門店(dian)(dian)占比持續降低，錦江酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)2023Q2直(zhi)營門店(dian)(dian)占比 6.65%，略高于萬(wan)豪酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian) 6.42%。錦江酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)境(jing)內加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)比例(li)持續提升，截至(zhi)2023Q2境(jing)內加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)占比 93.35%，遠高于境(jing)外加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)店(dian)(dian)占比 76.52%。

長期(qi)來看，加盟(meng)店的擴張(zhang)速度是(shi)決定酒(jiu)店集團(tuan)內在價值的關鍵因素。加盟(meng)業務收入穩定，業績(ji)對 RevPAR 的敏(min)感(gan)性很(hen)低，可以幫助酒(jiu)店克服周期(qi)屬性。而RevPAR 更依(yi)賴于行業景氣度、具有周期(qi)性且較難預測，因此長期(qi)業績(ji)依(yi)靠(kao) RevPAR 提升空間有限。

2.2 酒店行業具有成長性

我國(guo)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)以管理(li)(li)加(jia)盟為主(zhu)，國(guo)外(wai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)以授權(quan)加(jia)盟為主(zhu)。管理(li)(li)加(jia)盟由酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)派駐管理(li)(li)人員，對(dui)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)品質管理(li)(li)和運營(ying)(ying)相對(dui)較好。國(guo)外(wai)成熟酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌(pai)以授權(quan)加(jia)盟為主(zhu)，單體酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)管理(li)(li)人員的任免權(quan)歸業主(zhu)所(suo)有，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)提供培訓與持(chi)續督導服務，這種模式(shi)相較管理(li)(li)加(jia)盟更加(jia)輕資產化、凈利率(lv)較高。 我們對(dui)國(guo)內、國(guo)外(wai)主(zhu)要(yao)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)經營(ying)(ying)指標(biao)進行分(fen)析。國(guo)外(wai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)選取萬(wan)豪、希爾頓(dun)、精選酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)三(san)(san)家擁有中高端(duan)(duan)、高端(duan)(duan)、奢華全(quan)品牌(pai)矩陣的酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)。（營(ying)(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)增(zeng)速(su)(su)為避免酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)處在(zai)發展周期高營(ying)(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)增(zeng)速(su)(su)影響全(quan)圖坐標(biao)軸，我們主(zhu)要(yao)選取 2017 年起經營(ying)(ying)情(qing)況。）營(ying)(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)方面，國(guo)內、國(guo)外(wai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)營(ying)(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)增(zeng)速(su)(su)處在(zai)基本相同波動周期和區間(jian)，國(guo)內酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相對(dui)增(zeng)速(su)(su)波動較大(da)、國(guo)外(wai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)觸底(di)恢復(fu)能力較強。2022Q4 起，國(guo)內三(san)(san)大(da)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)營(ying)(ying)收(shou)(shou)(shou)增(zeng)速(su)(su)表現快速(su)(su)上揚趨勢，國(guo)外(wai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)團(tuan)自 2021Q3 達(da)到近三(san)(san)年高點后(hou)增(zeng)速(su)(su)持(chi)續收(shou)(shou)(shou)窄。主(zhu)要(yao)系國(guo)內、國(guo)外(wai)疫情(qing)管控政(zheng)策調整時間(jian)不同，疊加(jia)國(guo)內出行需求擠壓(ya)較多、目(mu)前仍處在(zai)商務出行和休閑旅游高速(su)(su)恢復(fu)階(jie)段。

凈利(li)(li)率(lv)方面，萬豪集(ji)團作為上市最(zui)早的(de)(de)(de)酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團，通(tong)過主動順應時(shi)代潮流專攻高(gao)端(duan)市場、輕管理資產模式，長(chang)期以來保持穩(wen)定凈利(li)(li)率(lv)。國(guo)際酒(jiu)店(dian)在(zai)行業經(jing)歷較(jiao)大(da)波(bo)動后凈利(li)(li)率(lv)恢復能力較(jiao)強；國(guo)內(nei)酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團同樣表(biao)現凈利(li)(li)率(lv)波(bo)動較(jiao)大(da)特征。 與國(guo)外成熟(shu)酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團相(xiang)比，國(guo)內(nei)酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團投資回報率(lv)整體偏低(di)，未來仍有(you)較(jiao)大(da)增長(chang)空間。國(guo)外酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團的(de)(de)(de)長(chang)期投資收益(yi)率(lv)在(zai) 15%-20%左右，遠高(gao)于國(guo)內(nei)水平。國(guo)外酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團長(chang)期平均每年可以貢獻 5%-8%的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)紅回報，國(guo)內(nei)基本為 0。

將凈利率進(jin)行(xing)進(jin)一步拆分(fen)可以(yi)看到加盟占比(bi)、所處發(fa)展階(jie)段(duan)、規(gui)模對酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團凈利率帶來(lai)的影響。國內(nei)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團目前仍處于擴張期、加盟店(dian)(dian)占比(bi)仍在提(ti)升。EBIT/EBITDA指標方面國外酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)普遍高于國內(nei)，主(zhu)要系國內(nei)酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團直營(ying)門(men)店(dian)(dian)占比(bi)較(jiao)大(da)(da)，經營(ying)直營(ying)門(men)店(dian)(dian)需要支出較(jiao)多(duo)折舊攤銷等費用。EBITDA/總營(ying)收反映酒(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團的規(gui)模效(xiao)應和所處階(jie)段(duan)，營(ying)收規(gui)模越(yue)大(da)(da)、管(guan)理(li)費用占比(bi)越(yue)少，EBITDA 利潤率越(yue)高。因此加盟店(dian)(dian)占比(bi)越(yue)大(da)(da)，EBITDA 利潤率越(yue)高。

我們通過華住(zhu)集團、錦(jin)江酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)費(fei)(fei)用(yong)率來分析加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)效(xiao)應(ying)。華住(zhu)集團銷(xiao)(xiao)售費(fei)(fei)用(yong)率和管(guan)理費(fei)(fei)用(yong)率隨加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)數量占(zhan)比(bi)提(ti)升不斷(duan)下(xia)降(jiang)，分別從 2007 年(nian)(nian)的(de)7.5%、53.8%下(xia)降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)2022年(nian)(nian)4.57%、9.01%，加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)提(ti)升至(zhi)(zhi) 2022 年(nian)(nian)接近 92%，加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)提(ti)升的(de)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)效(xiao)應(ying)明顯。錦(jin)江酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)在三大酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團中(zhong)加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)最高，截至(zhi)(zhi) 2023 上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)加(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)達(da)94.7%，銷(xiao)(xiao)售費(fei)(fei)用(yong)率和管(guan)理費(fei)(fei)用(yong)率從 2013 年(nian)(nian) 51.88%、21.64%減少至(zhi)(zhi) 2023 上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)7.55%、19.91%，規(gui)模(mo)(mo)效(xiao)應(ying)顯著。

加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)模式下(xia)(xia)，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)公司(si)授權加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)商使用(yong)自身酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)品(pin)牌(pai)，并為(wei)其提供開業(ye)選址、裝(zhuang)修(xiu)、人員培訓、中央渠道訂房等服(fu)務(wu)，根據約定比例收取(qu)固定的(de)品(pin)牌(pai)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)費用(yong)和(he)中央渠道訂房費用(yong)。輕資(zi)(zi)產(chan)模式下(xia)(xia)，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)公司(si)無需承(cheng)擔(dan)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)運(yun)營(ying)成(cheng)(cheng)本。因(yin)此(ci)，加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)比例越(yue)高(gao)(gao)，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)公司(si)凈(jing)(jing)利(li)率越(yue)高(gao)(gao)。加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)擴張是酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團(tuan)逆周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)長的(de)核(he)心。加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)門店(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比提升有(you)效帶動(dong)凈(jing)(jing)利(li)率水平(ping)增(zeng)長。加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)擴張有(you)效提升規模效應，相(xiang)對(dui)固定的(de)費用(yong)伴(ban)隨(sui)(sui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)數量(liang)增(zeng)多(duo)提升凈(jing)(jing)利(li)率水平(ping)。未來伴(ban)隨(sui)(sui)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)店(dian)(dian)持續增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團(tuan)核(he)心投(tou)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)值將從自身經(jing)歷能(neng)力(li)和(he)對(dui)上游(you)地產(chan)、家居等供貨(huo)商的(de)議(yi)價(jia)能(neng)力(li)逐(zhu)漸轉變(bian)為(wei)對(dui)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)商的(de)品(pin)牌(pai)輸出能(neng)力(li)。 從 ROE、加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)盟(meng)(meng)占(zhan)比、規模等多(duo)方面來看(kan)，國(guo)內(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團(tuan)仍(reng)處于成(cheng)(cheng)長階段，未來投(tou)資(zi)(zi)回報率仍(reng)有(you)很(hen)大的(de)增(zeng)長空(kong)間。隨(sui)(sui)著酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團(tuan)輕資(zi)(zi)產(chan)擴張加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)速，直營(ying)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)運(yun)營(ying)收入占(zhan)比將持續下(xia)(xia)降，行(xing)業(ye) OCC 和(he) ADR 周期(qi)性波動(dong)對(dui)業(ye)績的(de)影響(xiang)將逐(zhu)步削弱。 從經(jing)濟(ji)周期(qi)角度來看(kan)，每一輪經(jing)濟(ji)周期(qi)對(dui)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)的(de)影響(xiang)從提振OCC 開始，然后傳導至ADR，進而影響(xiang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)利(li)潤。

3. 酒店行(xing)業發(fa)展(zhan)趨勢

3.1 連鎖化進程(cheng)持續(xu)加(jia)深(shen)

美國酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業發(fa)展周期經歷(li)萌芽發(fa)展、野蠻(man)式擴張(zhang)、存量整合(he)到目前成熟期。國內酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行業經歷(li)初期萌芽到高速擴張(zhang)時期，疫情(qing)前存量酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)達到峰(feng)值(zhi)，逐漸步(bu)入存量整合(he)階段(duan)。這一階段(duan)大(da)型酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)以(yi)并購形式實現(xian)資源快速整合(he)，如：錦(jin)江收(shou)購 7 天/維也納，首旅(lv)收(shou)購如家，華住收(shou)購橘子(zi)水晶。存量整合(he)會(hui)加快連(lian)(lian)鎖化推進過(guo)程，單(dan)體酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)生存空間(jian)逐漸被(bei)壓縮。隨著供給端(duan)減少，單(dan)體酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)出(chu)清，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行業集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度會(hui)逐步(bu)抬升，連(lian)(lian)鎖酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)逐步(bu)凸(tu)顯優勢。頭部集團在(zai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)連(lian)(lian)鎖化中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的市場主導優勢愈(yu)加凸(tu)顯。2022年中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團規模為例，錦(jin)江酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)房間(jian)數突(tu)破 110 萬間(jian)，有(you) 13 家酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團房間(jian)數突(tu)破 10 萬間(jian)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)Top10 酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團累(lei)計門店(dian)(dian)(dian)數 4.32 萬家，累(lei)計客房數 374.24 萬間(jian)，較(jiao)上年增長 8.27%；前10 大(da)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團在(zai)連(lian)(lian)鎖酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)市場中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)占(zhan)(zhan)有(you)率達 69.46%，大(da)型酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團在(zai)市場發(fa)展中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的主要力量進一步(bu)增強(qiang)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)錦(jin)江酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)(zhan)比最大(da)達 22.11%。

國內酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)高于歐洲，逐漸向(xiang)美(mei)國靠攏。我國酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)整體連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)從2018年(nian)19%增長至 2022 年(nian)近 39%，較(jiao)(jiao)發(fa)達國家 60%以(yi)上(shang)連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)仍(reng)有(you)較(jiao)(jiao)大上(shang)升空間。受經濟和地理原(yuan)因影響，國內酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)商(shang)務需(xu)求(qiu)偏(pian)多，歐洲酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)以(yi)旅游需(xu)求(qiu)為(wei)主，需(xu)求(qiu)結構的(de)差異驅動(dong)中國酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)超越(yue)歐洲。中、美(mei)兩國地理均(jun)表現(xian)幅員(yuan)遼闊具(ju)有(you)相(xiang)似性(xing)，酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)需(xu)求(qiu)結構較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)相(xiang)近，商(shang)務需(xu)求(qiu)占比不會產生較(jiao)(jiao)大波動(dong)。未來國內酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)會在長期(qi)逐漸向(xiang)美(mei)國趨同(tong)。

連(lian)(lian)鎖(suo)(suo)酒店本身具備(bei)一(yi)定(ding)品牌屬性和(he)溢價空(kong)間(jian)。從消(xiao)費(fei)者角度(du)(du)來看，基于(yu)住宿安全和(he)一(yi)定(ding)條件的舒服度(du)(du)保(bao)障，選擇連(lian)(lian)鎖(suo)(suo)酒店可靠(kao)性較高；同時連(lian)(lian)鎖(suo)(suo)酒店提(ti)(ti)供的標準化(hua)服務會帶來一(yi)定(ding)客戶忠誠度(du)(du)提(ti)(ti)高消(xiao)費(fei)粘性。2022 年底(di)中國酒店連(lian)(lian)鎖(suo)(suo)化(hua)率達 38.79%，2019-2022 年CAGR達50%。

從(cong)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團產(chan)(chan)品(pin)結構方面(mian)來看，上一(yi)輪(lun)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)結構調整是2013 年(nian)陸續開始(shi)的經濟型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)向中高端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)升級(ji)，2015 年(nian)伴隨需(xu)求(qiu)變(bian)化、住宿差旅標準提升、消費升級(ji)等跟進(jin)，國內酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)行業(ye)(ye)進(jin)入產(chan)(chan)品(pin)升級(ji)浪潮。2020 年(nian)后(hou)受疫情影響，酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)行業(ye)(ye)發展進(jin)程有所放緩(huan)，但主(zhu)要酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)集(ji)團新(xin)開店(dian)(dian)速度不減、持續內部產(chan)(chan)品(pin)結構升級(ji)。參考一(yi)般酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)經營租(zu)賃期限為8-10 年(nian)，我們預計下(xia)一(yi)輪(lun)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)升級(ji)周期大(da)約在 2024-2025 年(nian)逐漸進(jin)入切換階段(duan)。

3.2 中高端(duan)化成為(wei)酒店擴張主要趨勢

目前我(wo)國(guo)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業豪(hao)華(hua)(hua)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高端(duan)、經濟(ji)(ji)型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)約為(wei)8%、27%、65%，國(guo)內酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)市(shi)場由低端(duan)經濟(ji)(ji)型酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)占主(zhu)導。歐美等(deng)發達國(guo)家(jia)成熟的酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)市(shi)場通常呈(cheng)現兩邊小(xiao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間大的“橄欖型”結(jie)(jie)構，豪(hao)華(hua)(hua)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高端(duan)、經濟(ji)(ji)型的比(bi)例(li)約為(wei) 20%、50%、30%。未來(lai)我(wo)國(guo)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業結(jie)(jie)構布局將(jiang)向歐美等(deng)發達國(guo)家(jia)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業結(jie)(jie)構靠近(jin)，呈(cheng)現中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高端(duan)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)為(wei)主(zhu)體的特(te)征。從(cong)目前國(guo)內酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)市(shi)場結(jie)(jie)構來(lai)看，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)的發展仍有發展空間，結(jie)(jie)合三大酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團布局傾斜，未來(lai)國(guo)內中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高端(duan)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)有望迎來(lai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長期快速發展階段。

2023 年 9 月國內酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)市場新(xin)增酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)數量方面，中高(gao)(gao)端、輕中端酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)簽(qian)約數量居前。2023年 9 月新(xin)開(kai)業(ye) 185 家(jia)(jia)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)，類(lei)型橫跨全品類(lei)。酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)類(lei)型占比上(shang)，中高(gao)(gao)端酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)最多，50家(jia)(jia)；其次是中端酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)，38 家(jia)(jia)；經濟(ji)型酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)以 32 家(jia)(jia)的數量排名(ming)第三；然(ran)后是輕中端酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)29家(jia)(jia)、國際高(gao)(gao)端酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian) 16 家(jia)(jia)、國內高(gao)(gao)端酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian) 11 家(jia)(jia)、精(jing)品民(min)宿 7 家(jia)(jia)以及(ji)奢華酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)2 家(jia)(jia)。

近(jin)年來我國頭部酒(jiu)店集團(tuan)不斷提(ti)升中高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)酒(jiu)店占(zhan)比，2022 年錦(jin)(jin)江、首旅(lv)、華住中高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)酒(jiu)店占(zhan)比分別提(ti)升至 55.57%、25.89%、38.2%。錦(jin)(jin)江收購維(wei)也納、鉑濤和(he)麗笙切入中高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)和(he)高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)市(shi)場(chang)；首旅(lv)自創(chuang)璞隱(yin)、和(he)頤，與凱悅集團(tuan)合資成立逸扉品(pin)牌(pai)，布(bu)局中高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)市(shi)場(chang)；華住自創(chuang)禧玥品(pin)牌(pai)，外購美居(ju)、城(cheng)際(ji)、花間堂、美爵、施柏閣等中高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)及高(gao)(gao)(gao)端(duan)(duan)(duan)品(pin)牌(pai)。

3.2.1 首旅酒(jiu)(jiu)店：中高端酒(jiu)(jiu)店占比(bi) 5 年(nian)提升10pct

截至目前，首旅(lv)旗下(xia) 20 多(duo)(duo)個品(pin)牌，40 多(duo)(duo)個產品(pin)，覆蓋“高端(duan)”、“中(zhong)高端(duan)”、“經濟型”、“休閑度假(jia)”、“社交娛樂”全(quan)系列的酒店(dian)產品(pin)，可以滿足消費者在(zai)商(shang)務出行及旅(lv)游休閑中(zhong)對良好住(zhu)宿環境的需求(qiu)。

在(zai)擴張(zhang)方式上，首(shou)旅如家(jia)(jia)(jia)堅持以(yi)特許加盟店(dian)為主(zhu)，以(yi)具備“投資(zi)小、賦(fu)能高、回(hui)報(bao)快(kuai)”等(deng)特征的輕管(guan)理模(mo)式為重(zhong)要組成部分的發展方式，實現酒(jiu)店(dian)規模(mo)擴張(zhang)。首(shou)旅如家(jia)(jia)(jia)計劃2023年持續夯實布局(ju) 300 多個城市，計劃新開酒(jiu)店(dian) 1,500-1,600 家(jia)(jia)(jia)。

在品牌數量(liang)(liang)方面(mian)，首旅(lv)擁有(you) 6 個(ge)經濟(ji)型品牌和 19 個(ge)中高(gao)端品牌。2023H1，首旅(lv)經濟(ji)型酒(jiu)店占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)為(wei)(wei) 31.32%，中高(gao)端為(wei)(wei) 25.9%，中高(gao)端酒(jiu)店房間量(liang)(liang)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)提升至37.41%，公司中高(gao)端產品占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)酒(jiu)店收(shou)入達(da)到 57.01%。在 2018 年同期，首旅(lv)酒(jiu)店中高(gao)端酒(jiu)店數量(liang)(liang)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)僅為(wei)(wei)15.1%，客房數占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)為(wei)(wei) 18.7%。僅從自身的縱向對比(bi)來看，首旅(lv)的中高(gao)端轉型頗有(you)成效。

從(cong)不同酒(jiu)店(dian)類型(xing)三(san)大經營(ying)指標方面(mian)來看，中高酒(jiu)店(dian)具有(you)較強經營(ying)韌(ren)性。疫情后期中高端(duan)酒(jiu)店(dian) OCC 相較于經濟(ji)型(xing)酒(jiu)店(dian)和輕管理(li)酒(jiu)店(dian)修(xiu)復(fu)能力較強，需(xu)求端(duan)有(you)所恢復(fu)立刻表現(xian)在(zai)中高端(duan)酒(jiu)店(dian) OCC 提升。RevPAR 同比(bi)增速(su)方面(mian)，中高端(duan)酒(jiu)店(dian)基(ji)本保持最高同比(bi)增速(su)，在(zai)2022Q4和2023Q1RevPAR 率(lv)先突破 150 元和 200 元大關。

3.2.2 錦江酒店：十余年(nian)中高端酒店市場布局，位居(ju)全球酒店集團top2

隨著我國(guo)經濟總量的(de)增(zeng)長(chang)和居民收入提升，中(zhong)高端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求也日益旺盛。部分(fen)資(zi)金充裕的(de)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團將并(bing)購目(mu)標定(ding)為中(zhong)高端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。同時，我國(guo)中(zhong)高端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)領域(yu)被(bei)國(guo)外品牌如萬豪等所把(ba)持，國(guo)內企(qi)業主要通過(guo)并(bing)購和改造原有酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)品牌擴充自己的(de)產品線(xian)。錦江酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自 2010 年收購美國(guo) IHR 集(ji)(ji)團，主要通過(guo)收購中(zhong)美兩(liang)國(guo)規(gui)模龐大的(de)中(zhong)高端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團進(jin)軍海外中(zhong)高端酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。這種快速內外延(yan)伸并(bing)購的(de)模式使錦江酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)超越首旅和華住，一(yi)躍成(cheng)為全國(guo)第一(yi)、全球第二酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)團。

錦(jin)江酒店(dian)集團(tuan)最(zui)初通過錦(jin)江之(zhi)星切(qie)入(ru)經濟型酒店(dian)市場。伴(ban)隨國民(min)消費水(shui)平(ping)提(ti)升(sheng)，市場對中端及中高(gao)(gao)端酒店(dian)需求增(zeng)加，錦(jin)江通過品(pin)牌的并購迅(xun)速擴充自身產品(pin)線，在戰略方面堅定布(bu)局中高(gao)(gao)端酒店(dian)。通過十余(yu)年中高(gao)(gao)端酒店(dian)布(bu)局，2022 年錦(jin)江國際集團(tuan)以(yi)1.24 萬(wan)家酒店(dian)、12.67萬(wan)件客(ke)房(fang)位于全(quan)球前十酒店(dian)集團(tuan)榜單(dan)第二(er)。

與 2019 年(nian)(nian)同期相比(bi)，2023H1 錦(jin)江酒(jiu)店(dian)旗下中(zhong)(zhong)國境內酒(jiu)店(dian)整(zheng)體(ti)RevPAR恢復至2019年(nian)(nian)同期 166.81%。其中(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)端酒(jiu)店(dian) RevPAR 恢復至 2019 年(nian)(nian)同期的(de)(de) 144.93%；經濟型酒(jiu)店(dian)恢復至2019年(nian)(nian)同期的(de)(de) 181.47%。 疫情(qing)前（2018 年(nian)(nian)-2019 年(nian)(nian)）錦(jin)江酒(jiu)店(dian)在中(zhong)(zhong)國大陸(lu)境內開(kai)業的(de)(de)加(jia)盟(meng)酒(jiu)店(dian)年(nian)(nian)增量在1100家左右，疫情(qing)三年(nian)(nian)平均每年(nian)(nian)加(jia)盟(meng)酒(jiu)店(dian)增量維持(chi)在 1000 家以上，表現出較強的(de)(de)抗風險(xian)性和發展(zhan)力(li)。

3.2.3 華住集團：中檔酒店 RevPAR 表現最優

《中國(guo)酒(jiu)店(dian)業發展(zhan)報(bao)告》顯示(shi)，2022 年(nian)中國(guo)大(da)陸(lu)地區一共擁有住(zhu)宿設施總數為36.1萬(wan)家(jia)，較(jiao) 2021 年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)了(le) 8.6 萬(wan)家(jia)，其中酒(jiu)店(dian)住(zhu)宿業較(jiao) 2021 年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)了(le)2.7 萬(wan)家(jia)，其他住(zhu)宿業較(jiao)2021年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)了(le) 5.9 萬(wan)家(jia)，疫情(qing)對酒(jiu)店(dian)業造成了(le)巨大(da)的(de)影響。賽(sai)道的(de)出(chu)清為高品(pin)質經(jing)濟(ji)型酒(jiu)店(dian)發展(zhan)提供了(le)機會(hui)。

截至 2023H1 年累計不(bu)同酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)級別數(shu)據來看，中(zhong)(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)(dang)和(he)(he)經(jing)濟型級別酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)平均房(fang)價大(da)幅超(chao)越(yue)2019 年同期水平，漲幅遠拋開其他級別酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)，從而(er)拉(la)升了(le)中(zhong)(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)整體的(de)(de)業績(ji)回升，每間(jian)可(ke)售(shou)房(fang)收入指數(shu)在所有級別中(zhong)(zhong)表(biao)現最優(you)。 華住持續聚(ju)焦于由經(jing)濟型和(he)(he)中(zhong)(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)組成的(de)(de)有限服務領域以滿(man)足廣大(da)國民的(de)(de)住宿需(xu)求(qiu)。截至 2023H1，公司 pipeline 酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)數(shu)量為 2808 家，其中(zhong)(zhong) 38%為經(jing)濟型國民酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)，48%為中(zhong)(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)，中(zhong)(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)占比同比提(ti)升 5pct。 目前華住集(ji)團在中(zhong)(zhong)高檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)市場(chang)，基本形成了(le)包(bao)含桔子水晶(jing)、城際、美(mei)侖(lun)美(mei)奐、漫心、歡閣、美(mei)侖(lun)、美(mei)居和(he)(he)諾富(fu)特等品牌(pai)在內的(de)(de)多(duo)元化(hua)(hua)品牌(pai)矩(ju)陣，全(quan)面(mian)滿(man)足消費(fei)者個性化(hua)(hua)和(he)(he)多(duo)樣化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)旅居需(xu)求(qiu)。在營的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)高檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)數(shu)量達到 562 家，同比增長(chang)(chang) 18%；pipeline 中(zhong)(zhong)高檔(dang)(dang)(dang)酒(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)數(shu)量為317家，同比增長(chang)(chang) 29%。

公(gong)(gong)司經營能力直接體現(xian)在(zai) RevPAR 指(zhi)標(biao)修(xiu)復(fu)。公(gong)(gong)司長(chang)期 RevPAR 增長(chang)動力主要來(lai)源于，1）通(tong)過(guo)不斷的(de)產品升級(ji)和服(fu)務提升來(lai)獲取更高的(de)溢價；2）通(tong)過(guo)持續在(zai)中高端品牌的(de)發力，優化完善酒店結構(gou)，提升中高端酒店的(de)市場份額。2023H1 公(gong)(gong)司中檔酒店RevPAR為309元（+75.57%），OCC81.7%、于 2023Q1 反超經濟型酒店。

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文(wen)章來(lai)源：【未來(lai)智(zhi)庫】